* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 11/14/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 31 27 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 31 27 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 24 22 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 7 11 18 17 17 13 17 26 27 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -7 -6 -5 -3 -1 0 4 0 2 0 7 6 SHEAR DIR 268 272 251 261 245 235 238 232 217 215 233 229 228 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 147 146 143 142 142 143 144 142 140 138 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 86 85 84 82 78 76 70 67 63 63 62 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 23 19 15 13 11 44 46 54 49 63 82 93 105 200 MB DIV 194 202 199 165 129 92 85 67 70 55 25 32 32 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 -1 1 1 4 0 4 LAND (KM) 2081 2065 2052 2026 2002 1966 1963 2007 2073 2152 2213 2255 2291 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.1 11.6 12.2 12.8 13.7 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.5 125.9 126.2 126.5 126.9 127.3 127.9 128.8 130.0 131.2 132.2 132.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 7 6 4 3 4 5 6 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 17 13 11 10 11 13 12 12 22 18 11 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 3. 4. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 11/14/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 177.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 11/14/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##