* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 11/15/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 21 25 31 36 41 42 37 45 49 55 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 1 0 2 6 7 6 4 5 5 0 SHEAR DIR 218 222 227 229 222 237 233 242 235 242 239 241 233 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 142 140 134 129 130 133 134 132 129 126 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.0 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 81 77 73 69 67 60 53 49 45 44 44 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 28 31 46 56 63 68 54 61 78 68 63 64 200 MB DIV 235 200 161 122 106 55 60 28 26 43 33 30 25 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 6 2 -5 -6 0 2 2 7 10 5 LAND (KM) 1955 1918 1882 1813 1745 1589 1497 1519 1599 1711 1766 1799 1816 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.2 15.9 17.2 17.8 17.7 17.5 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 126.3 126.4 126.5 126.3 126.1 125.4 124.8 125.0 125.9 127.3 128.5 129.5 130.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 8 8 5 2 3 5 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 14 14 9 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 793 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -12. -19. -25. -30. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -9. -17. -26. -34. -39. -43. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 11/15/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 164.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 11/15/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##