* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 11/15/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 28 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 28 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 25 28 34 38 45 42 44 48 53 58 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 0 1 8 11 10 7 3 3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 240 233 244 222 222 240 240 243 236 234 229 226 218 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.4 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 143 140 138 132 129 132 134 131 129 126 120 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 80 75 72 70 66 57 51 45 42 40 42 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 8 9 9 7 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 12 26 45 60 68 51 29 33 50 48 42 41 24 200 MB DIV 218 188 143 103 68 53 41 42 45 32 35 39 42 700-850 TADV 2 2 7 0 -4 -4 1 6 7 8 11 10 10 LAND (KM) 1846 1773 1701 1607 1514 1338 1274 1311 1407 1499 1519 1505 1449 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.4 15.2 16.0 16.8 17.9 18.1 17.8 17.5 17.7 18.4 19.4 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 125.3 125.2 125.0 124.6 124.1 122.9 122.3 122.5 123.4 124.7 125.8 126.6 127.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 9 9 5 1 3 5 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 9 11 6 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -15. -24. -30. -35. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 2. -4. -15. -25. -36. -46. -54. -60. -63. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 11/15/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 144.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 11/15/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##