* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 11/15/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 29 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 29 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 27 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 24 30 34 37 41 41 43 49 52 60 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 3 9 11 7 5 4 2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 237 247 224 224 236 234 241 229 234 226 227 221 215 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 141 139 136 132 130 133 134 133 130 126 120 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 78 74 71 67 62 55 49 45 42 44 46 44 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 17 40 56 65 63 50 36 48 59 58 44 45 23 200 MB DIV 191 140 99 64 40 48 47 46 37 30 30 48 23 700-850 TADV 1 6 1 -2 -6 -4 0 3 5 9 6 6 8 LAND (KM) 1854 1785 1719 1644 1571 1450 1424 1487 1577 1614 1603 1563 1520 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.5 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.5 17.5 17.2 17.1 17.5 18.3 19.5 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 125.4 125.4 125.3 125.0 124.7 123.9 123.6 124.1 125.1 126.1 126.8 127.4 127.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 9 8 8 6 3 1 4 5 5 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 10 6 0 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -15. -22. -29. -34. -38. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. -3. -12. -21. -32. -42. -49. -55. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 11/15/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 11/15/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##