* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 11/15/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 21 27 28 29 32 28 32 31 38 45 48 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 3 7 11 8 3 4 3 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 242 225 223 226 227 230 228 219 224 214 218 211 212 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 140 138 136 139 140 138 137 135 132 129 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 74 71 67 62 57 51 48 46 49 50 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 9 7 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 39 54 69 69 68 51 55 78 79 69 64 85 94 200 MB DIV 161 124 89 60 68 67 75 45 53 57 54 67 58 700-850 TADV 4 2 -1 -8 -6 -3 1 0 3 5 6 4 4 LAND (KM) 1776 1699 1623 1554 1485 1429 1475 1552 1624 1654 1644 1598 1534 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.6 16.1 15.7 15.7 16.1 16.8 17.6 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 124.7 124.4 124.0 123.5 122.9 123.0 123.6 124.5 125.2 125.7 126.0 126.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 7 6 5 1 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 11 10 8 7 10 11 11 9 5 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -5. -14. -22. -27. -36. -42. -48. -52. -54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 11/15/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 11/15/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##