* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 11/16/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 30 28 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 28 27 28 27 30 29 33 35 39 41 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 4 5 8 3 4 0 0 2 4 6 SHEAR DIR 216 217 216 220 220 221 217 229 214 215 209 215 217 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 140 140 138 139 140 140 139 138 137 133 128 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 70 67 62 60 55 51 49 51 54 54 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 9 8 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 48 67 70 74 68 50 68 79 78 77 77 71 71 200 MB DIV 125 99 88 83 85 56 57 41 52 59 68 62 50 700-850 TADV 2 0 -8 -7 -7 -2 -3 0 0 1 2 1 2 LAND (KM) 1746 1665 1584 1537 1490 1498 1559 1637 1694 1716 1690 1628 1549 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.7 15.9 16.1 15.9 15.5 15.2 15.3 15.7 16.5 17.5 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 124.5 124.0 123.6 123.2 123.1 123.5 124.2 125.0 125.6 126.0 126.3 126.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 4 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 6 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -6. -10. -15. -18. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -20. -29. -36. -43. -47. -51. -54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 11/16/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 11/16/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##