* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 11/16/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 28 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 30 29 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 22 19 19 17 19 20 25 26 29 34 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 1 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 205 212 217 213 215 222 232 235 219 217 198 208 201 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 136 136 137 138 139 138 137 135 133 132 127 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 62 59 55 54 53 53 56 57 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 57 67 69 67 59 47 59 63 68 72 77 80 84 200 MB DIV 106 95 82 81 71 30 16 34 45 48 67 66 58 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -5 -4 -1 0 -3 2 3 4 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 1784 1730 1675 1675 1675 1730 1800 1878 1911 1924 1908 1839 1720 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.3 14.0 13.8 14.0 14.4 15.0 15.9 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 125.1 124.7 124.3 124.3 124.2 124.5 125.1 125.9 126.5 127.0 127.3 127.4 127.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 2 1 2 2 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -16. -24. -31. -36. -37. -40. -42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 11/16/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 11/16/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##