* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992015 11/16/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 27 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 27 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 26 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 20 20 19 21 29 31 36 40 44 46 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 3 2 3 3 2 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 212 220 217 221 226 233 241 228 227 216 215 217 222 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 134 135 135 136 135 133 133 131 127 121 118 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 62 59 54 54 50 48 48 49 47 42 36 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 66 72 68 62 52 49 70 71 61 52 51 65 55 200 MB DIV 92 82 82 64 34 22 22 33 36 39 33 11 1 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 -4 0 3 6 5 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1746 1722 1699 1715 1731 1779 1844 1899 1900 1872 1844 1809 1760 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.7 15.0 15.6 16.5 17.6 18.7 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 124.9 124.8 124.7 124.9 125.0 125.5 126.3 127.2 127.9 128.5 129.2 129.7 129.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 10 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -20. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -13. -22. -31. -39. -44. -47. -51. -52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 11/16/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992015 INVEST 11/16/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##