* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 11/17/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 34 38 43 47 49 46 42 36 30 23 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 34 38 43 47 49 46 42 36 30 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 29 31 34 37 39 40 40 37 33 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 10 8 4 1 6 9 13 18 28 46 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 -2 0 0 3 0 -11 SHEAR DIR 122 131 153 193 207 179 198 245 271 252 243 228 225 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.5 27.6 26.4 25.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 160 160 159 158 155 150 141 128 113 106 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 78 75 72 67 63 57 59 54 49 48 49 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 18 34 58 60 56 59 45 36 34 19 41 38 200 MB DIV 100 107 103 98 102 111 117 66 45 46 40 61 92 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 5 5 11 7 LAND (KM) 850 824 800 789 779 762 777 824 780 805 812 702 470 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.7 16.8 18.0 19.3 21.4 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 109.2 109.2 109.3 109.3 109.7 110.5 111.9 113.7 115.7 117.5 118.1 117.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 4 7 9 11 11 10 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 32 30 29 29 28 27 24 17 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. -1. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 13. 18. 22. 24. 21. 17. 11. 5. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 11/17/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 73% is 5.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 51% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 32% is 9.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 11/17/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##