* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 11/17/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 47 54 57 58 56 53 50 43 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 47 54 57 58 56 53 50 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 37 43 48 52 54 53 48 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 11 5 6 10 10 8 9 15 20 36 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -5 0 0 1 2 6 -6 SHEAR DIR 96 122 158 143 155 138 174 220 255 231 226 230 238 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.4 27.8 27.0 26.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 161 161 161 160 157 154 148 141 133 127 124 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 76 74 69 64 60 57 55 51 51 50 51 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 19 25 46 50 50 54 49 39 47 48 39 47 51 200 MB DIV 117 110 91 99 120 104 88 48 29 28 66 76 61 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 1 1 -1 0 -2 0 0 4 12 20 LAND (KM) 882 841 800 781 763 730 726 767 711 693 669 486 207 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.6 15.4 16.2 17.3 18.3 19.5 21.4 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 108.9 108.9 109.1 109.2 109.7 110.4 111.8 113.3 114.5 115.4 115.3 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 4 3 4 5 6 9 8 8 8 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 43 39 35 32 31 31 32 25 18 7 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 32. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 0. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 29. 32. 33. 31. 28. 25. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 11/17/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 74% is 5.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 36% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 36% is 9.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 11/17/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##