* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 11/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 41 48 51 54 53 53 52 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 41 48 51 54 53 53 52 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 30 35 39 43 44 43 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 7 5 6 8 6 3 5 10 13 24 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 2 2 -1 -2 -3 4 6 0 0 4 9 SHEAR DIR 107 118 118 108 94 135 168 274 275 239 214 234 238 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.5 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 160 160 162 158 154 149 144 138 135 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 8 7 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 62 63 65 64 60 58 55 59 64 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 11 10 9 10 11 12 14 15 16 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 29 44 53 52 46 42 26 24 34 30 38 25 34 200 MB DIV 117 97 90 111 110 90 62 51 45 41 58 51 89 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 2 17 LAND (KM) 777 741 706 679 652 625 620 680 741 741 733 675 497 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.3 14.9 15.7 16.4 16.9 17.6 18.7 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.4 107.4 107.3 107.3 107.3 107.6 108.5 110.1 111.6 113.1 114.2 114.7 114.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 3 4 7 8 8 7 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 59 66 72 74 71 55 38 36 26 20 12 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 16. 23. 26. 29. 28. 28. 27. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 11/18/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 11/18/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##