* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902015 11/18/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 46 44 41 35 28 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 46 44 41 35 28 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 39 43 46 45 41 37 31 26 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 4 2 8 8 13 17 25 42 51 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 4 2 3 3 5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 100 81 69 101 146 223 225 227 236 228 230 232 242 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.0 25.8 24.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 160 161 160 154 149 143 133 121 112 112 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 66 61 60 59 61 57 54 53 51 50 56 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 54 52 48 44 38 30 35 30 30 36 45 22 200 MB DIV 114 122 104 87 81 43 44 33 22 48 70 45 22 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 3 -1 1 3 11 11 LAND (KM) 703 673 640 626 616 645 734 721 778 825 761 603 344 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.1 17.7 18.6 20.1 22.2 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.4 107.6 107.7 108.0 108.3 109.6 111.3 113.1 115.0 116.7 117.7 117.5 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 6 8 9 10 9 9 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 72 69 55 44 39 39 27 20 9 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 28. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. -1. -7. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 14. 11. 5. -2. -9. -15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST 11/18/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 52% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 38% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 38% is 10.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST 11/18/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##