* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212015 11/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 52 57 58 58 56 52 46 40 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 52 57 58 58 56 52 46 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 41 48 56 59 59 55 51 45 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 8 6 3 2 1 4 11 26 37 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -3 -2 3 5 9 5 4 4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 68 69 83 83 67 73 307 211 290 274 260 250 247 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.7 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 161 160 163 162 155 151 150 148 140 134 134 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 65 65 60 59 59 62 66 69 67 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 44 38 36 27 24 18 17 5 2 13 12 -12 200 MB DIV 117 115 96 90 72 45 28 18 27 30 53 22 26 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -3 0 -5 -7 -7 0 15 19 LAND (KM) 726 712 700 684 669 667 785 813 812 755 661 586 485 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.6 13.9 15.1 15.8 16.0 16.2 17.0 18.6 19.7 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.1 107.2 107.5 107.7 109.4 111.4 112.6 113.1 113.6 114.4 114.5 114.0 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 4 7 10 8 4 3 7 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 65 69 74 72 62 37 26 23 21 17 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 22. 27. 28. 28. 26. 22. 16. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212015 TWENTYONE 11/18/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 TWENTYONE 11/18/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##