* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212015 11/19/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 41 43 41 39 35 30 25 21 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 41 43 41 39 35 30 25 21 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 34 37 39 38 35 32 28 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 8 5 3 2 5 10 17 28 28 41 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -1 2 3 1 2 2 3 6 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 84 96 92 76 95 238 260 256 255 251 243 244 239 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.5 27.5 26.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 162 164 163 158 155 151 144 136 136 132 120 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 62 62 60 60 59 57 65 68 59 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 36 33 32 28 25 20 21 27 14 24 14 8 200 MB DIV 103 73 65 52 28 27 29 22 47 38 46 30 -22 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 -2 -1 -1 5 11 2 LAND (KM) 694 677 663 668 673 740 832 800 774 759 736 685 602 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.2 15.6 16.4 17.5 18.3 18.5 19.5 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 106.9 107.2 108.1 108.9 110.4 111.8 113.3 114.7 115.4 115.3 115.7 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 10 9 7 8 8 7 3 3 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 61 70 76 50 37 31 24 20 10 5 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 11. 9. 5. 0. -5. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212015 TWENTYONE 11/19/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 TWENTYONE 11/19/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##