* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212015 11/19/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 41 42 42 39 35 30 22 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 42 42 39 35 30 22 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 41 42 42 39 36 32 27 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 6 3 3 10 13 17 21 30 36 36 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 1 0 -1 0 4 3 2 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 121 137 138 164 238 257 251 253 252 257 251 241 251 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 162 156 151 146 142 138 133 131 126 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 61 61 59 57 57 67 69 66 55 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 16 19 10 10 13 11 22 20 16 8 0 -25 200 MB DIV 71 54 27 22 18 0 10 19 21 32 33 6 -4 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 -1 -2 2 0 0 0 5 9 5 8 LAND (KM) 511 507 511 522 552 623 641 608 579 553 512 430 312 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.7 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.3 21.3 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.3 106.9 107.8 108.7 110.2 111.5 112.6 113.3 113.8 114.1 114.1 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 10 9 8 7 6 4 4 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 49 42 36 40 38 26 20 11 8 6 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -5. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 4. 0. -5. -13. -18. -22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212015 TWENTYONE 11/19/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 TWENTYONE 11/19/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##