* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/19/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 41 42 44 43 40 33 28 19 18 17 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 41 42 44 43 40 33 28 19 18 17 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 43 45 45 42 38 33 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 3 6 11 17 21 28 37 43 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 3 3 1 0 2 2 3 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 125 142 190 234 253 255 244 249 246 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 162 157 151 145 141 136 131 123 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 60 58 55 51 50 54 61 63 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 26 19 24 27 39 29 31 26 27 18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 32 22 13 13 8 23 23 33 30 21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -4 0 0 -1 2 4 8 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 536 539 541 581 638 659 657 628 598 576 521 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.3 17.8 18.5 19.3 20.2 21.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.4 108.1 109.2 110.3 112.1 113.2 113.8 114.3 114.9 115.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 12 11 8 5 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 40 36 42 37 24 17 10 6 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -5. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 8. 5. -2. -7. -16. -17. -18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/19/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/19/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##