* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/20/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 39 39 35 31 23 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 39 39 35 31 23 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 38 39 40 39 36 33 29 24 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 1 3 8 11 14 22 27 41 44 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 3 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 104 121 115 218 241 252 233 246 245 247 240 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.6 26.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 160 158 154 149 144 140 134 128 123 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -54.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 57 56 55 54 50 51 52 56 51 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 25 20 26 22 17 21 14 21 9 -3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 18 18 28 28 24 20 14 26 11 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 1 3 0 2 2 5 6 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 553 565 591 643 699 685 668 655 632 558 452 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.5 19.5 20.6 21.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.5 109.2 110.1 111.0 112.5 113.4 114.2 114.9 115.3 115.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 6 5 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 32 34 32 25 19 12 6 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 1. -4. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 0. -4. -12. -19. -20. -19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/20/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/20/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##