* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/20/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 42 44 43 38 32 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 42 44 43 38 32 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 39 40 39 37 34 30 25 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 5 10 12 19 26 36 45 52 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 5 0 -1 1 2 1 1 -4 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 166 243 241 243 249 234 250 243 245 238 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.6 26.0 25.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 156 153 150 145 141 135 128 121 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.8 -53.3 -54.0 -54.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 54 51 48 50 52 56 48 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 25 24 20 23 20 16 17 21 3 -3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 19 37 40 30 13 14 27 28 16 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 2 2 0 0 5 4 4 6 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 590 639 692 710 694 672 680 668 618 542 475 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.7 18.2 19.1 20.2 21.3 22.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.9 110.7 111.5 112.2 113.3 114.2 115.0 115.7 116.0 116.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 33 28 23 20 13 6 2 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -9. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 3. -3. -12. -21. -23. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/20/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/20/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##