* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/20/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 40 41 38 34 30 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 40 41 38 34 30 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 37 37 35 34 31 26 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 8 8 13 22 29 39 43 50 50 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 3 1 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 182 260 256 248 249 229 242 240 243 241 247 243 245 SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.5 26.7 25.7 25.1 24.9 24.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 153 151 148 143 137 129 119 111 108 107 109 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 -52.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 50 49 48 46 50 48 42 37 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 11 9 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 26 25 21 23 17 24 12 26 15 -13 -10 -10 -7 200 MB DIV 23 41 40 41 23 7 6 40 28 -30 -14 -12 -25 700-850 TADV -3 0 2 0 0 1 2 6 5 4 6 1 -1 LAND (KM) 644 693 708 705 711 744 767 742 685 639 591 562 530 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.7 18.3 19.3 20.6 21.6 22.1 22.3 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.7 111.6 112.3 113.1 114.5 115.5 116.4 117.2 117.5 117.3 117.1 116.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 7 6 4 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 33 30 26 22 17 9 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -4. -11. -17. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 0. -2. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 3. -1. -5. -16. -27. -34. -40. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/20/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/20/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##