* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/20/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 31 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 31 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 34 33 32 31 29 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 11 11 19 27 37 42 47 50 58 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 -2 -1 3 1 1 0 -1 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 261 257 250 252 246 244 241 241 242 236 241 231 229 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.7 26.8 26.1 25.5 25.2 25.2 25.0 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 149 145 140 130 122 115 111 111 110 107 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.9 -53.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 51 50 49 48 46 45 46 52 48 42 41 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 8 8 6 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 24 19 24 21 20 22 26 20 -1 -5 -17 4 -7 200 MB DIV 38 34 29 21 15 10 25 31 15 -17 -8 -15 -30 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 0 0 2 4 5 3 5 4 1 -6 LAND (KM) 731 741 730 740 761 805 803 778 739 705 660 612 555 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.9 18.9 19.8 20.6 21.1 21.4 21.9 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.8 112.6 113.4 114.2 115.6 116.8 117.6 117.9 117.9 117.6 117.4 117.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 26 21 16 12 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -9. -16. -22. -28. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -23. -31. -40. -47. -55. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/20/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/20/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##