* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/21/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 31 29 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 31 29 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 31 30 27 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 11 11 13 20 31 42 41 46 52 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 0 -2 0 3 3 2 0 -2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 248 250 247 241 238 218 239 241 249 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.1 26.3 25.5 24.9 24.5 24.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 146 144 134 125 116 109 103 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 -52.6 -53.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 49 49 47 46 46 49 44 40 38 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 25 21 21 24 30 31 12 2 -7 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 39 34 32 33 31 23 2 -27 -20 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 0 1 3 4 4 5 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 733 747 770 800 839 900 885 856 817 784 765 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.3 18.1 19.1 20.2 21.1 21.7 21.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.9 113.7 114.6 115.4 117.2 118.3 119.0 119.2 119.2 119.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 9 8 7 5 4 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 19 15 13 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -12. -19. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -11. -20. -28. -38. -48. -50. -50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/21/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/21/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##