* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 31 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 31 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 31 29 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 13 16 29 40 42 48 49 60 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 0 0 3 1 0 1 -4 -2 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 258 256 246 237 232 243 244 242 243 236 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.5 26.6 26.0 25.2 24.6 24.4 24.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 145 142 138 129 121 113 106 102 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 -52.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -53.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 46 46 47 49 45 41 36 34 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 9 10 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 22 21 22 32 37 37 6 8 1 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 24 31 37 29 28 24 -3 -12 -25 -23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 1 0 5 5 2 6 3 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 765 793 829 859 898 912 906 885 851 825 826 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.6 19.5 20.4 21.4 21.8 21.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.2 115.0 115.8 116.6 118.1 119.0 119.5 119.8 119.9 119.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 14 14 12 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -17. -25. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -9. -15. -25. -34. -45. -54. -56. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/21/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##