* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 29 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 29 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 34 33 31 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 18 23 28 38 45 49 53 55 66 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 -2 -7 -5 -7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 252 247 242 243 240 244 241 245 240 240 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.8 25.9 25.1 24.6 24.2 24.0 24.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 140 136 131 121 112 106 101 99 99 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -53.5 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 -53.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 43 45 44 47 49 42 38 37 39 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 22 29 28 30 0 -17 -7 0 -21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 17 17 26 30 19 5 -9 -22 -3 -31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 4 5 2 5 -3 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 797 824 859 880 882 868 858 836 764 703 670 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.7 20.7 21.5 22.2 22.6 22.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.3 116.0 116.8 117.5 118.7 119.4 119.7 119.5 119.1 118.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -15. -25. -35. -44. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -19. -28. -41. -51. -61. -64. -65. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/21/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##