* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 32 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 32 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 33 31 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 21 26 30 43 46 53 51 58 66 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 -1 0 1 -1 -9 -6 -2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 243 242 242 239 246 245 239 238 232 237 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.6 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 139 134 129 120 112 107 105 103 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 48 50 46 42 36 36 37 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 17 20 20 23 25 -10 -10 -16 8 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 22 41 38 23 16 8 -7 -4 -3 -38 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 5 2 -5 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 890 910 936 932 928 916 888 861 821 793 755 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.7 20.5 21.1 21.5 21.7 21.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.1 116.8 117.5 118.2 119.3 119.6 119.7 119.5 119.3 119.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 6 4 3 2 1 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 14 9 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -4. -9. -18. -28. -37. -45. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -16. -26. -40. -50. -62. -65. -66. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/21/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##