* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 11/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 42 53 63 75 80 88 97 99 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 42 53 63 75 80 88 97 99 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 30 35 40 49 60 71 84 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 10 7 9 7 3 5 10 8 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 -5 -4 -3 1 0 -2 -4 0 5 SHEAR DIR 107 118 137 161 161 187 189 168 147 142 142 124 296 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 159 160 163 166 164 162 161 160 160 158 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.5 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 75 78 80 82 81 81 81 83 83 81 75 67 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 8 11 15 17 22 25 28 33 33 850 MB ENV VOR 47 46 44 33 21 2 2 28 49 54 65 81 79 200 MB DIV 38 66 74 84 84 67 58 99 133 143 160 193 201 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 1 7 10 4 1 0 1 2 7 LAND (KM) 246 272 302 381 463 547 648 748 829 926 1005 1019 970 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.7 11.4 10.9 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.5 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 92.5 93.0 93.5 94.3 95.1 97.4 100.5 103.5 106.2 108.5 110.3 111.3 111.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 8 10 13 15 14 12 10 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 21 22 20 17 51 40 35 34 37 36 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 37. 40. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 17. 25. 28. 35. 40. 40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 33. 43. 55. 60. 68. 77. 79. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 11/21/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 11/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##