* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 30 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 30 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 31 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 23 29 36 41 46 49 55 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 -1 -2 0 0 -4 -13 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 238 242 243 241 247 241 242 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.2 24.7 24.5 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 134 128 122 113 107 103 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -53.6 -54.2 -54.2 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 46 49 50 48 42 35 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 25 25 25 22 4 -11 -8 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 35 31 18 17 2 -17 -7 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 2 5 6 3 5 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 951 974 980 973 976 976 938 906 906 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.2 20.2 21.1 21.5 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.4 118.2 118.9 119.6 120.4 120.7 120.7 120.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 6 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 789 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -23. -34. -41. -45. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -8. -17. -26. -39. -51. -59. -63. -66. -67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/22/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##