* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 11/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 44 56 67 77 83 93 99 99 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 44 56 67 77 83 93 99 99 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 31 37 45 54 65 78 92 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 8 8 11 5 3 3 11 7 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 -6 -4 1 8 SHEAR DIR 103 121 147 145 159 182 190 183 186 141 100 343 350 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 160 161 166 165 162 163 161 159 159 157 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -50.9 -51.3 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 77 78 80 79 81 81 82 85 83 78 72 64 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 8 9 13 16 20 25 28 32 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 44 39 32 23 12 9 15 43 56 60 78 73 77 200 MB DIV 46 59 71 77 69 51 60 97 116 166 207 184 157 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 2 5 6 2 1 0 0 3 6 LAND (KM) 291 341 395 480 500 596 698 785 857 952 1001 993 912 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.2 10.7 10.8 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.3 13.0 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 93.3 93.9 94.5 95.4 96.3 98.9 101.9 104.8 107.3 109.4 110.8 111.5 111.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 8 9 11 14 15 13 11 8 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 22 19 17 30 56 38 37 34 39 32 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 37. 40. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 21. 28. 32. 39. 41. 39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 36. 47. 57. 63. 73. 79. 79. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 11/22/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 11/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##