* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 25 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 28 32 39 44 46 54 48 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -2 0 0 -2 -6 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 242 240 238 240 238 239 242 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.7 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 129 125 120 112 107 105 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 49 50 46 37 34 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 13 12 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 26 25 19 21 -11 -11 -32 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 42 25 26 20 8 -16 -11 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 3 4 3 4 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1011 1008 1015 1005 1002 1011 991 966 944 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.2 20.8 21.1 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.3 119.1 119.6 120.1 120.8 121.1 121.1 120.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 4 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 786 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -13. -23. -34. -41. -45. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -11. -20. -31. -45. -57. -65. -70. -73. -72. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/22/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##