* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 11/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 27 36 44 54 60 68 77 85 87 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 27 36 44 54 60 68 77 85 87 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 31 37 43 51 61 71 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 6 11 10 7 7 9 9 7 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -4 -2 -5 -5 -4 0 6 10 SHEAR DIR 96 125 125 149 177 173 173 197 175 146 114 345 256 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 160 162 164 166 164 164 164 161 159 158 156 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -50.7 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 78 80 81 82 82 80 82 83 81 75 65 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 7 8 10 13 16 21 24 28 32 36 38 850 MB ENV VOR 32 29 23 14 9 12 27 46 51 71 85 78 60 200 MB DIV 56 62 70 61 57 61 81 123 126 139 190 182 95 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 6 6 5 0 0 1 3 9 12 LAND (KM) 416 455 466 494 529 613 692 750 855 930 961 905 742 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.2 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.4 14.4 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 94.9 95.5 96.2 97.2 98.2 100.9 103.6 106.2 108.5 110.4 111.5 111.7 111.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 10 11 14 13 12 10 8 5 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 18 18 23 56 42 37 37 34 30 32 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 25. 32. 37. 40. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 16. 24. 27. 34. 40. 45. 46. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 16. 24. 34. 40. 48. 57. 65. 67. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 11/22/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 11/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##