* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 11/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 31 41 47 54 59 61 63 66 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 31 41 47 54 59 61 63 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 27 30 33 37 39 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 12 14 10 10 9 8 10 17 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -5 -3 3 6 12 8 SHEAR DIR 141 144 175 178 183 205 223 232 203 218 242 187 220 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 161 162 163 166 164 162 163 163 162 159 157 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.4 -51.6 -50.7 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 7 6 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 81 81 83 82 81 81 84 83 82 78 76 77 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 8 9 11 14 19 22 26 30 31 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR 37 30 27 21 20 20 34 59 69 71 47 20 11 200 MB DIV 66 73 64 66 61 61 105 97 122 169 226 208 76 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 6 6 3 0 0 2 4 11 10 15 LAND (KM) 361 444 490 501 527 576 681 739 766 724 607 498 401 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 8 7 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 16 16 22 46 51 38 44 45 32 29 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 37. 40. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 19. 24. 29. 35. 38. 41. 44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 21. 27. 34. 39. 41. 43. 46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 11/22/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 11/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##