* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 26 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 38 44 44 47 55 50 49 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 1 -1 -7 -8 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 241 241 238 234 235 241 230 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.1 24.9 25.0 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 127 123 119 116 110 108 109 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -52.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 49 48 43 39 38 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 10 10 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 7 9 -3 -23 -29 -47 -25 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 33 34 15 16 -3 -3 -13 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 5 3 3 5 6 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1035 1021 1013 994 977 949 917 893 881 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.5 20.9 20.7 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.9 119.4 119.8 120.0 120.2 120.3 120.2 119.8 119.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -17. -27. -38. -47. -51. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -11. -22. -36. -50. -66. -75. -81. -85. -85. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/22/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##