* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 11/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 41 56 66 75 80 84 86 86 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 41 56 66 75 80 84 86 86 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 28 34 42 51 62 68 69 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 9 10 9 7 4 11 10 10 6 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -4 -3 -1 -2 -8 -4 2 9 7 10 SHEAR DIR 125 127 149 153 154 141 133 153 152 186 158 148 233 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 164 165 166 165 162 161 161 162 161 158 155 152 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 82 83 83 83 80 82 80 80 75 73 68 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 10 11 12 15 20 23 26 30 31 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 33 14 14 16 14 41 58 61 79 79 41 29 35 200 MB DIV 88 71 62 26 26 49 72 96 146 211 242 137 95 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 3 4 2 0 2 3 5 7 7 15 LAND (KM) 472 518 589 643 720 820 859 902 907 871 786 673 479 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 15 15 14 12 11 8 6 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 24 45 54 34 34 36 46 25 30 29 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 7. 15. 24. 32. 37. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 25. 30. 34. 38. 39. 41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 21. 36. 46. 55. 60. 64. 66. 66. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 11/22/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 11/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##