* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 11/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 25 30 42 53 63 73 75 76 80 72 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 25 30 42 53 63 73 75 76 80 72 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 23 24 29 34 42 51 60 63 63 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 11 11 8 6 5 7 4 8 5 12 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -5 -6 -3 3 13 12 19 SHEAR DIR 159 167 164 161 157 167 173 156 305 299 282 251 246 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 164 165 165 164 162 161 160 161 162 158 155 149 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -51.1 -51.4 -50.4 -51.1 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 7 5 700-500 MB RH 83 83 82 80 82 83 82 80 76 72 66 62 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 11 12 14 18 22 25 29 32 31 35 33 850 MB ENV VOR 19 17 14 17 17 43 53 64 65 47 37 29 39 200 MB DIV 63 54 36 36 58 63 84 111 196 205 175 89 69 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 4 3 1 1 2 2 7 13 13 16 LAND (KM) 467 527 589 643 709 805 865 902 909 882 849 715 437 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 13 10 6 6 7 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 31 49 56 36 34 36 41 30 29 29 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 7. 15. 24. 32. 37. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 14. 20. 25. 32. 35. 36. 41. 36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 10. 22. 33. 43. 53. 55. 56. 60. 52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 11/23/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 11/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##