* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 11/23/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 27 38 47 57 62 62 58 59 51 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 27 38 47 57 62 62 58 59 51 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 32 37 41 43 42 39 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 7 8 8 7 5 6 10 17 27 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 -4 -5 -3 2 14 16 8 12 SHEAR DIR 163 162 141 159 177 221 214 223 293 290 231 242 240 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 167 166 165 162 162 165 164 161 157 153 148 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 4 700-500 MB RH 84 82 82 83 82 83 81 78 73 68 63 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 13 18 20 24 25 27 25 28 24 850 MB ENV VOR 21 11 11 15 20 32 30 41 36 20 22 37 28 200 MB DIV 44 26 32 36 38 54 88 131 199 185 113 88 90 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 2 0 2 2 5 7 12 22 24 29 LAND (KM) 521 566 634 689 744 803 829 848 845 808 739 558 363 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 13 12 10 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 32 50 59 40 37 36 40 31 29 31 24 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 6. 15. 25. 33. 37. 40. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 11. 15. 21. 23. 25. 23. 27. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 7. 18. 27. 37. 42. 42. 38. 39. 31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 11/23/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 11/23/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##