* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 11/23/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 55 67 74 78 72 70 65 50 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 55 67 74 78 72 70 65 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 40 49 59 68 73 71 64 53 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 8 8 9 8 10 11 6 12 24 32 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -2 -3 -3 -5 1 19 22 11 10 13 SHEAR DIR 160 153 162 186 196 219 187 163 177 212 231 244 247 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.6 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 167 166 166 167 167 160 155 153 152 153 155 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -51.6 -51.7 -50.9 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 82 82 83 83 83 80 78 73 67 61 61 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 13 15 19 22 23 26 24 25 25 17 850 MB ENV VOR 15 14 11 16 38 41 40 49 33 26 29 40 39 200 MB DIV 23 31 36 43 47 72 102 163 161 129 86 83 102 700-850 TADV 3 4 2 0 1 2 4 5 7 14 15 32 34 LAND (KM) 558 594 653 687 718 758 838 934 925 814 635 381 158 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.7 13.4 14.1 15.0 16.1 17.6 19.6 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 98.6 100.2 101.8 103.2 104.7 107.4 109.8 111.8 112.8 112.9 112.3 111.0 108.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 15 15 15 13 11 8 6 7 10 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 25 44 63 45 38 46 32 32 35 31 29 18 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 17. 19. 23. 21. 23. 22. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 30. 42. 49. 53. 47. 45. 40. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 11/23/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 67% is 5.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 11/23/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##