* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912015 11/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 48 55 71 84 93 92 81 76 52 26 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 48 55 71 84 93 92 81 76 52 26 V (KT) LGE mod 30 35 41 48 56 71 88 99 98 85 67 42 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 6 4 4 6 7 7 29 36 49 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 13 28 10 7 10 -6 SHEAR DIR 110 109 113 141 183 127 151 142 187 220 239 232 235 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.5 27.7 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 164 163 162 162 159 157 153 150 142 139 139 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -51.6 -51.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 7 4 3 5 700-500 MB RH 82 82 80 79 77 77 72 68 59 52 49 40 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 17 18 21 24 27 27 24 26 16 4 850 MB ENV VOR 22 32 35 41 45 52 63 72 62 39 36 25 0 200 MB DIV 43 33 30 49 71 89 132 172 134 99 57 58 43 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 1 2 3 5 3 8 12 14 5 5 LAND (KM) 706 775 837 880 942 1008 1031 1033 929 752 507 299 124 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 14 9 6 7 9 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 56 36 36 32 33 52 41 44 30 22 14 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 7. 3. -3. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 8. 14. 19. 23. 23. 19. 23. 8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 25. 41. 54. 63. 62. 52. 46. 22. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 11/23/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 4.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 11/23/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##