* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO EP222015 11/24/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 39 44 50 62 74 76 75 72 63 33 25 V (KT) LAND 30 33 39 44 50 62 74 76 75 72 63 33 26 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 41 46 55 65 71 70 63 47 31 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 5 4 2 5 5 3 12 20 25 39 70 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -4 -6 -3 5 21 24 12 19 14 0 SHEAR DIR 128 138 152 188 215 199 180 269 224 253 251 251 242 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.4 27.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 162 163 163 163 162 158 155 150 149 144 129 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -52.3 -51.3 -51.6 -50.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 7 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 78 79 78 74 68 62 61 61 49 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 18 19 19 22 26 26 27 29 26 10 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 40 45 46 50 47 43 21 33 25 22 36 49 200 MB DIV 38 45 58 78 109 131 177 188 135 82 77 79 32 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 8 23 19 35 -7 -3 LAND (KM) 772 813 849 865 890 906 892 850 684 447 201 42 -72 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.6 12.0 13.0 13.8 15.2 17.1 19.2 21.1 23.4 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 103.8 105.0 106.2 107.4 108.5 110.3 111.0 111.7 112.2 111.7 110.2 109.0 108.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 8 6 9 10 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 33 33 36 36 25 33 31 19 12 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 388 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 0. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 19. 21. 24. 20. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 14. 20. 32. 44. 46. 45. 42. 33. 3. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 TWENTYTWO 11/24/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 TWENTYTWO 11/24/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##