* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO EP222015 11/24/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 52 63 69 69 68 63 48 25 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 52 63 69 69 68 63 48 25 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 45 49 56 62 65 62 55 40 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 2 1 2 2 4 6 17 25 35 47 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -6 -5 -1 9 22 15 11 12 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 128 172 191 287 212 238 227 300 253 260 259 249 246 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 161 162 163 162 161 157 154 151 146 131 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 6 3 700-500 MB RH 83 82 81 80 79 77 72 67 62 62 57 50 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 18 19 21 23 22 24 24 17 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 43 47 46 51 46 37 22 19 32 24 36 40 200 MB DIV 49 54 64 94 111 147 194 155 109 79 58 73 35 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 0 3 4 10 23 25 23 8 21 LAND (KM) 824 845 880 898 925 917 868 763 582 344 153 60 -200 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.8 14.0 15.6 17.7 19.8 21.8 23.7 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.8 107.0 108.0 108.9 110.2 110.9 111.0 110.7 110.0 109.1 107.7 105.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 11 10 9 7 7 10 11 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 32 33 36 44 24 33 25 15 15 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. 3. -4. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. -10. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 13. 15. 15. 6. -11. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 28. 34. 34. 33. 28. 13. -10. -20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 TWENTYTWO 11/24/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 TWENTYTWO 11/24/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##