* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/24/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 59 64 72 74 68 61 51 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 59 64 72 74 68 61 51 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 55 59 64 72 74 69 59 47 31 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 5 4 6 7 13 29 33 50 67 80 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -6 -5 4 17 27 10 10 8 -7 -8 SHEAR DIR 164 228 248 227 228 244 273 235 250 249 247 242 250 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.0 28.7 28.5 27.6 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 163 164 163 162 160 155 152 150 140 116 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -51.4 -51.9 -50.9 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 4 4 1 700-500 MB RH 83 82 81 80 79 75 70 64 63 60 52 45 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 19 19 20 23 25 23 22 21 10 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 40 40 41 38 39 12 14 23 22 34 30 28 200 MB DIV 62 69 89 112 119 193 177 151 80 96 66 49 9 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 1 7 11 22 20 24 20 -2 15 LAND (KM) 834 846 868 881 893 871 793 666 457 219 127 -104 -290 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.4 13.5 14.8 16.7 18.8 21.0 23.0 24.8 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.6 107.5 108.4 109.2 110.4 110.7 110.7 110.4 109.4 107.9 106.6 105.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 7 8 10 11 12 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 32 33 37 45 26 27 28 19 17 10 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 17. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 5. 0. -6. -15. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -13. -11. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 11. 9. 8. 6. -10. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 19. 27. 29. 23. 16. 6. -18. -39. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/24/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 72% is 5.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 57% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 41% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 38% is 8.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/24/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##