* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/24/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 64 70 78 78 69 59 29 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 64 70 78 78 69 59 29 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 60 66 71 80 79 71 56 38 27 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 9 5 4 9 22 34 43 58 85 85 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -4 -4 -1 11 23 21 8 14 0 -18 -7 SHEAR DIR 200 219 216 202 197 230 266 243 246 236 238 242 262 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.2 27.8 25.2 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 166 166 164 161 159 155 150 147 143 117 94 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 6 4 3 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 82 80 79 76 71 63 59 53 48 36 25 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 21 23 25 27 24 22 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 41 39 37 39 23 16 18 36 32 20 19 6 200 MB DIV 85 104 121 133 163 199 188 96 77 64 28 17 -8 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 3 9 18 27 11 2 9 15 19 LAND (KM) 815 826 846 850 865 832 727 510 284 75 22 -265 -567 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.6 16.3 18.4 20.4 22.4 24.2 26.5 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.6 108.5 109.4 110.2 111.0 111.1 111.0 110.6 109.5 107.7 106.0 104.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 33 38 40 43 28 27 29 21 16 13 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. -5. -13. -26. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. -9. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 9. 6. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 28. 28. 19. 9. -21. -32. -44. -56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/24/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 60% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 46% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 29% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/24/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##