* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/25/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 72 79 84 87 78 70 56 33 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 66 72 79 84 87 78 70 56 33 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 68 75 82 88 92 84 69 53 37 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 4 2 9 16 27 37 50 65 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 0 6 20 31 12 6 -3 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 211 204 190 211 258 237 250 242 239 245 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.1 28.7 28.4 27.8 25.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 165 164 163 161 156 152 150 144 120 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.6 -53.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 4 5 3 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 74 74 69 64 62 58 54 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 24 24 26 23 23 19 10 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 33 33 31 28 7 12 19 12 38 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 121 127 161 181 187 122 67 81 61 38 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 4 6 12 22 23 25 10 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 849 866 880 854 838 757 612 373 127 7 -312 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.3 13.9 15.7 17.5 19.6 21.9 24.2 26.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.4 109.3 109.9 110.4 111.0 111.2 110.7 109.4 107.5 105.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 12 14 14 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 38 46 33 24 30 25 16 14 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -10. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 9. 5. 5. -1. -13. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 24. 27. 18. 10. -4. -27. -47. -52. -54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/25/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 138.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 78% is 6.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 77% is 8.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 65% is 10.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 64% is 15.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/25/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##