* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/25/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 83 89 95 97 92 79 66 50 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 83 89 95 97 92 79 66 50 32 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 86 95 102 106 100 86 68 49 34 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 5 6 9 12 26 36 44 56 77 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 2 10 27 16 9 -2 -2 -12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 175 185 174 211 236 263 251 255 244 239 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.0 24.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 165 164 162 158 153 152 148 134 109 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -52.7 -53.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 7 5 4 4 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 77 75 74 72 65 62 61 60 51 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 25 26 25 23 21 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 37 34 28 18 13 13 24 43 38 -11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 125 126 133 159 172 154 94 81 83 62 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 6 10 18 26 31 29 11 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 864 854 851 806 772 676 456 211 120 -141 -337 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.9 13.4 14.3 15.1 16.9 18.9 21.0 23.3 25.3 27.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.3 110.0 110.4 110.7 111.1 111.0 109.9 108.1 106.6 105.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 13 13 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 44 29 24 29 27 18 14 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 0. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -5. -11. -18. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -6. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 20. 22. 17. 4. -9. -25. -45. -61. -68. -71. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/25/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 143.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 70% is 5.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 65% is 7.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 64% is 10.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 61% is 14.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/25/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##