* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 88 96 101 100 91 79 65 44 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 88 96 101 100 91 79 65 44 29 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 90 98 104 105 97 82 65 46 31 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 2 4 12 18 29 36 43 61 78 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 6 13 14 24 8 5 2 -5 -14 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 162 150 123 248 246 255 257 251 236 241 253 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.0 24.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 164 162 160 158 154 152 148 134 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -53.0 -53.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 8 5 5 4 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 75 71 70 66 63 62 62 59 49 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 26 26 25 23 23 20 12 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 47 41 25 12 21 15 12 40 6 -6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 130 152 174 143 107 55 52 75 78 34 -21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 7 7 21 21 30 17 -2 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 909 880 862 823 791 654 414 181 90 -163 -371 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 13.0 13.7 14.5 15.3 17.1 19.2 21.4 23.4 25.2 26.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.9 110.5 110.8 111.1 111.1 110.5 109.3 107.8 106.2 104.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 11 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 39 23 23 25 23 15 12 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -20. -32. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. -5. -16. -29. -30. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 21. 20. 11. -1. -15. -36. -62. -80. -86. -88. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/25/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 78% is 5.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 74% is 9.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 70% is 11.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 70% is 16.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/25/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##