* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 102 107 107 104 88 74 54 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 102 107 107 104 88 74 54 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 103 107 108 104 91 75 57 39 26 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 6 11 13 22 32 40 54 72 78 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 6 10 20 16 6 5 2 -5 -8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 163 146 239 241 251 248 255 240 236 239 260 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.2 25.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 163 162 160 156 153 150 144 137 114 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -53.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 71 69 65 62 62 58 46 31 21 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 25 24 25 22 22 18 11 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 46 29 19 18 13 29 16 18 11 -26 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 150 173 165 143 102 63 62 92 68 -1 -43 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 6 5 11 20 25 33 14 -1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 894 858 830 779 735 596 381 166 40 -67 -332 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.4 14.1 15.0 15.9 17.6 19.5 21.4 23.3 25.1 26.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.7 110.1 110.5 110.7 110.9 110.9 110.5 109.9 109.0 107.4 105.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 28 22 24 25 22 14 10 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -18. -28. -41. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -9. -19. -30. -31. -30. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 12. 9. -7. -21. -41. -65. -91.-110.-117.-120. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/25/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 146.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 47% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 40% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 40% is 9.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##