* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 112 113 109 100 82 58 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 112 113 109 100 82 58 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 112 112 107 99 80 59 39 26 24 26 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 8 10 15 22 27 39 51 64 78 84 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 18 25 27 13 6 0 -4 -8 -7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 192 207 236 247 245 247 242 237 233 247 267 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.4 27.8 26.3 23.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 161 160 157 153 151 149 143 126 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -52.8 -53.6 -54.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 64 63 60 59 53 43 27 19 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 26 24 23 24 20 11 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 25 11 9 12 11 14 4 6 9 4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 154 171 155 115 91 80 83 55 38 -10 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 9 15 22 17 30 12 2 1 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 874 837 810 761 711 512 302 114 52 -134 -288 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 14.1 14.8 15.7 16.6 18.4 20.2 22.1 24.1 26.0 28.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.6 110.9 111.1 111.2 111.1 110.4 109.3 108.0 107.2 106.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 22 24 25 25 19 13 10 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -9. -14. -20. -26. -34. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -22. -29. -40. -53. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -8. -20. -32. -32. -33. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 8. 4. -5. -23. -47. -74.-100.-116.-135.-143.-148. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/26/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/26/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##