* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/26/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 132 130 121 108 78 45 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 125 132 130 121 108 78 45 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 125 129 124 114 102 77 53 37 26 26 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 14 22 29 33 43 51 67 80 102 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 17 25 22 13 13 1 -1 -1 -4 -26 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 182 231 232 239 253 253 245 236 238 255 265 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.3 25.0 23.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 160 158 156 153 149 144 137 114 93 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -53.0 -53.4 -54.2 -54.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 2 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 66 63 59 58 56 50 41 20 15 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 23 21 21 19 13 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 14 10 10 13 18 5 27 43 27 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 162 158 130 78 61 62 74 76 24 -13 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 9 19 23 22 26 26 15 11 4 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 814 771 735 677 585 380 169 62 -29 -220 -408 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.7 19.5 21.4 23.2 24.9 26.9 29.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.3 110.6 110.9 110.9 110.9 110.4 109.7 108.8 107.7 107.0 106.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 24 25 23 21 14 11 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -21. -29. -37. -47. -56. -59. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -7. -11. -19. -26. -31. -38. -48. -64. -69. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 9. 12. 12. 11. 5. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -2. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -10. -18. -30. -30. -30. -31. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 5. -4. -17. -47. -80.-109.-125.-142.-166.-175.-179. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/26/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/26/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##