* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 105 95 86 61 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 113 105 95 86 61 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 111 102 91 79 57 37 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 17 22 27 29 38 47 64 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 24 25 12 8 9 -6 -4 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 257 249 250 247 245 240 235 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.4 26.4 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 160 157 155 154 150 129 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 66 62 63 61 57 49 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 22 21 22 18 13 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -2 7 4 16 7 39 35 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 142 143 69 67 75 78 87 58 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 33 36 28 22 31 18 0 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 715 647 585 532 444 265 112 -176 -424 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 16.3 17.3 18.1 18.9 20.6 23.1 25.8 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.2 110.2 110.2 110.1 109.3 107.8 106.6 105.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 9 8 9 12 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 19 15 15 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -15. -23. -34. -39. -43. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -11. -15. -22. -29. -36. -49. -51. -55. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -4. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -4. -10. -19. -34. -33. -33. -34. -33. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 1. 4. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -10. -20. -29. -54. -79.-109.-130.-139.-149.-155.-156. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/26/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##