* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 95 84 75 66 47 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 95 84 75 66 47 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 94 82 71 61 44 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 29 35 36 43 50 68 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 26 24 16 2 4 -3 -3 -3 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 237 244 249 249 249 242 240 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.6 27.6 24.6 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 157 155 154 151 141 110 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 5 5 4 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 63 64 61 59 56 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 23 20 21 20 16 11 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 3 2 8 12 17 42 24 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 156 84 75 59 84 80 91 59 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 29 33 33 25 27 26 21 21 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 648 577 500 395 293 144 -52 -312 -579 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.3 18.4 19.4 20.3 22.3 24.7 27.0 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.2 110.1 109.8 109.5 108.5 107.2 105.8 104.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 12 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 21 18 13 13 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -20. -30. -34. -38. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -13. -18. -26. -32. -41. -54. -58. -63. -68. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -5. -12. -20. -30. -34. -33. -34. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. 1. 4. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -21. -30. -39. -58. -78.-102.-125.-135.-145.-149.-149. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/26/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##