* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 102 92 82 70 44 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 102 92 82 70 44 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 110 102 92 81 69 47 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 31 35 33 38 47 69 84 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 25 16 1 7 4 3 -4 -12 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 244 253 243 238 236 235 244 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.0 26.8 25.1 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 155 153 152 145 132 112 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 62 61 58 53 46 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 20 18 11 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 5 11 4 0 23 40 36 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 60 57 84 83 85 55 19 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 36 34 25 26 24 20 10 13 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 537 486 411 313 217 71 -44 -187 -263 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.4 19.2 20.1 21.0 23.3 25.6 26.9 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.8 109.8 109.8 109.7 109.5 108.7 108.0 107.4 106.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 9 9 11 12 10 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 20 13 12 14 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 12 CX,CY: 2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -16. -26. -35. -40. -44. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -18. -23. -32. -42. -53. -66. -71. -76. -82. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -14. -21. -28. -28. -27. -28. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -18. -28. -40. -66. -92.-118.-137.-148.-158.-165.-168. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/27/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##