* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 83 70 57 45 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 83 70 57 45 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 84 72 61 51 37 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 37 40 43 44 54 73 84 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 22 10 3 0 0 2 -2 -9 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 248 255 249 240 230 238 247 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 27.6 26.6 24.5 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 154 153 150 140 129 107 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.9 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 4 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 59 55 49 37 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 18 15 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -1 -11 -16 -7 12 22 19 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 58 51 53 76 75 31 -4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 26 28 17 10 4 12 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 450 399 308 210 129 67 -97 -239 -369 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.4 20.2 21.2 22.2 24.2 25.8 27.3 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 109.4 109.3 109.1 108.9 108.3 107.5 107.0 106.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 10 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 14 14 18 15 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -17. -25. -29. -32. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -18. -23. -32. -43. -56. -72. -80. -87. -94. -99. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -7. -12. -21. -23. -23. -23. -23. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -25. -38. -49. -71. -88.-106.-126.-137.-148.-155.-158. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/27/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##